Skip to main content

WCA’s 2024 General Election Watch Guide 

By WA Community Alliance Action Fund

Statewide Contests

All of Washington’s statewide elected offices are up for reelection this year, and all but three contests have a Democratic or left-leaning incumbent. The Washington Primary, which is closely followed for its predictive qualities, suggests that the statewide contests are safe for Dems. Two of the down ballot races may be better described as likely Dem: the Lands Commissioner contest where Dems do not have the benefit of incumbency and the Superintendent of Public Instruction which is non-partisan. 

President of the United States: Kamala Harris (D) vs Donald Trump (R)

  • Recent polling shows Harris leading 57-35%, a very wide margin even for Washington. Assured win for Harris.

US Senator: Maria Cantwell (D) vs Raul Garcia (R)

  • Maria Cantwell led strong in the Primary with 58%.
  • Recent polling shows her at a similar place, and is expected to win easily.

Governor of Washington: Bob Ferguson (D) vs Dave Reichert (R)

  • Democrats led Republicans 54.9-43.3% in the Primary, a good sign for Democrats in the General. 
  • Recent polling shows Bob Ferguson leading 50-34%. This seat is safe D.  

Attorney General, Secretary of State, Lands Commissioner, Auditor, Treasurer:

  • The predictive Washington Primary and history suggests that all of the other partisan statewide elected positions are likely Dem holds. 
  • The Lands Commissioner race may be closer since there is no incumbent and Republican Jaimie Herrera Beutler has huge name recognition, but Democrats collectively won a sizable majority of Primary votes. 

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Chris Reykdal vs David Olson

  • The Superintendent is Washington’s only nonpartisan statewide contest. Reykdal is the incumbent and is endorsed by Dem organizations. This seat is likely to be held by Reykdal. 

Statewide Ballot Measures

Voters will decide on 4 Let’s Go Washington initiatives from mega-donor Brian Heywood, each aiming to roll back recent progressive state legislation. While framed by supporters as promoting financial freedom and energy choice, the initiatives threaten essential public services, environmental progress, and social safety nets. Recent polling shows declining support for the initiatives. However, past “populist” tax measures have seen success, so progressive opposition campaigns remain guarded.

I-2109: Repeal Capital Gains Tax

  • Polling: In September, 52% opposed the repeal and 30% supported it. This marks a shift from July’s poll, when 46% favored repeal and 36% opposed (+10 margin). October polls show even greater opposition.
  • Media Endorsements: Newspapers nearly unanimously oppose this measure, including The Seattle Times, The Columbian, and the News Tribune, citing risks to education and childcare funding.

I-2117: Repeal Cap-and-Trade Program

  • Polling: In September, 46% opposed and 30% supported the repeal (-16 margin), similar to October polls. Earlier polling in July showed closer margins, with 41% in favor and 31% opposed (+10 margin).
  • Media Endorsements: Broad opposition from newspapers, including The Seattle Times, The Columbian, and other outlets, emphasizes the importance of the cap-and-trade program for environmental progress.

I-2124: Remove Mandate for Long-Term Care Program (WA Cares)

  • Polling: Late October polling shows opposition (49-28%) after months of strong support for this measure. In September, 39% supported opting out, 33% opposed (+6 margin), with 28% undecided. Support was higher in July, with 47% in favor and 25% against (+22 margin).
  • Media Endorsements: Newspapers are more sympathetic toward this measure. The Columbian supports it, while The Seattle Times adopts a neutral stance, citing frustration with the payroll tax.

I-2066: Deregulate Natural Gas

  • Polling: This is the only measure polling in October still shows more support than opposition for. In October, polls showed a 48-44% margin in support of this measure. In September, 47% supported the measure, 29% opposed (+18 margin).
  • Media Endorsements: The Seattle Times supports this measure, citing concerns over energy transition costs. However, most papers, including The Columbian and the News Tribune, oppose it, stressing the need for cleaner energy policies.

 

Congressional

Seven of the ten districts have a likely outcome (Democrats: CDs 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 10; Republicans: CD 5). There are three key congressional districts with close races: 

District 3 (Southwest WA): National Swing District

  • Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) vs. Joe Kent (R) 
  • Primary Results: Republicans +5.6%
  • This is one of the most important races nationally over control of the US House of Representatives. Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has a rematch against right-wing Republican Joe Kent who she upset in 2022 by 1%. Polling shows this race to be that close again.

District 4 (Central WA): Last Pro-Impeachment Republican

  • Dan Newhouse (R-incumbent) vs. Jerrod Sessler (R-MAGA) 
  • Primary Results: non-Newhouse Republicans: 51.3% (Democrats locked out)
  • After January 2, 2021, 10 House Republicans voted to impeach Trump. Four retired without seeking re-election, 4 lost Republican Primaries to pro-Trump challengers, and 2 remain — one is incumbent Dan Newhouse. Newhouse faces pro-Trump challenger Jerrod Sessler who led Newhouse 33.1-23.4% in the Primary. 

District 8 (East KingCo/Mountains): Less-National Swing District

  • Kim Schrier (D) vs. Carmen Goers (R) 
  • Primary Results: Democrats +9.9%
  • The 8th has been bitterly fought over for the last 3 cycles, but this year National Republicans have given up. While still a close district, Schrier outraised Republican Carmen Goers 13-to-1 and was beaten handedly in the Primary. 

 

State Legislature

Democrats will very likely keep their majorities in the State House (58-40) and Senate (29-20). In fact, Democrats are more likely to gain seats than lose seats. 

  • The worst outcome for Democrats is a 29-20 Senate and 54-44 House 
  • The best outcome for Democrats is a 32-17 Senate and 64-34 House 

We analyzed historic election results and 2024 campaign data to assess the competitiveness of each district. We found that the closest districts are the 10th, 14th, 17th, 26th, and 42nd LDs. We’re also keeping an eye on these districts:

  • Lean Republican: 12, 18, 25, 35
  • Lean Democrat: 5, 28

District 14: Latino Representation

  • Maria Beltran (D-Sen), Chelsea Dimas (D-Rep 1), Ana Ruiz Kennedy (D-Rep 2), Curtis King (R-Sen), Gloria Mendoza (R-Rep 1), Deb Manjarrez (R-Rep 2)
  • The 14th LD was redistricted this year from a red district to a swing district. Three Latino Democrats are running to flip the 14th and be the first Latino progressive representatives for the first time in recent memory. 

District 45: Conservative vs Progressive Democrat

  • Rep 2: Larry Springer (D-conservative) vs. Melissa Demyan (D-progressive)
  • Conservative Democrat long-time incumbent Larry Springer is facing the race of his political career from pro-labor, progressive Democrat Melissa Demyan. Springer led 49-48% in the Primary — it’s a close race.

 

County

Spokane County

Spokane County Board of Commissioners was expanded to five commissioners elected by districts. The expansion changed the balance of the commission from 3R-0D to 3R-2D. This election, which has three seats up for reelection, gives Dems another chance at a Dem majority since 1995. The majority comes down to one race: 

  • District 5 (west Spokane County): Lean Republican
    • Incumbent Al French defeated Air Force Veteran Molly Marshall 51%-48.6% in the Primary and is favored to win re-election. Contamination of well water with PFAS (forever chemicals) could be a harbinger propelling Marshall to victory. 

Pierce County 

Pierce County Council currently has a 4-3 Democratic majority with 4/7 districted seats up for re-election in 2024. Democrats need to hold Districts 4 and 6 to keep their majority.

  • District 2 (Puyallup): Likely Republican
      • Davida Haygood (D) vs. Paul Herrera (R) 
      • Incumbent Paul Herrera won 53.5-37.8% in the Primary and is likely going to win re-election.
  • District 3 (southeast county): Safely Republican
      • John Linboe (D) vs. Amy Cruver (R) 
      • Incumbent Amy Cruver won nearly 60% in the Primary and will easily win re-election.
  • District 4 (south Tacoma): Safely Democrat
      • Rosie Ayala (D) vs. Rodney Robinson (D) 
      • Progressive Rosie Ayala is favored over her perennial opponent. She beat him 66-30% in the Primary.
  • District 6 (Lakewood): Tossup, lean Democratic
    • Jani Hitchen (D) vs. Loujanna “LJ” Rohrer (R) 
    • A Democratic-held seat that Republican LJ Rohrer led in the Primary with 46.7%, but her two Democratic opponents earned 53.2% collectively. Democrat Jani Hitchen has a slight advantage.

Clark County

Clark County Council has a nonpartisan council, but the candidates generally align with one of the two parties. Using party endorsements, there is currently a 4-1 Republican majority with 2/5 districted seats up for re-election in 2024. Democrats need to win both for a majority, but are behind in both.

  • District 3 (East Vancouver): Tossup
      • Wil Fuentes (D) vs. Chuck Keplar (R) 
  • Democrat Wil Fuentes is trying to flip this Republican-held seat in a lean-blue district against Republican Chuck Keplar who won the Primary by 69 votes (<1%). This seat has been a 3-point race for the last 8 years, and this year is looking to be a 50-50 race again. 
  • District 4 (Camas, Washougal): Likely Republican
    • Matt Little (D) vs. Joe Zimmerman (R) 
    • This safely Republican district has an open race between Republican Joe Zimmerman and Matt Little with endorsements from Democrats and moderate Republicans. Zimmerman led after the Primary 26-24% with 50% of voters choosing someone else. Zimmerman is favored due in this strongly Republican district, but Little’s cross-party appeal could make the race competitive.

Yakima County

Yakima County Commission was redistricted in 2021 which resulted in 2/3 district-based seats be majority-Latino, and subsequently lean Democratic. However Republicans hold a 3-0 majority, and will keep their majority because Democrats are contesting just 1/2 seats up for election:

  • District 2 (Yakima City): Lean Republican
      • Susan Soto Palmer (D) vs. Kyle Curtis (R) 
  • Democrat Susan Soto Palmer is challenging Republican Kyle Curtis, but lost the Primary 41-59%. Thus Curtis is slightly favored here. Although, in 2020, Governor Inslee also received 41% in the Primary then won the General with 51%. 
  • District 3 (south county, Yakima Valley): Solid Republican
    • Elpidia Saavedra (R) vs. LaDon Linde (R) 
    • Despite Biden winning by double-digits in 2020, Democrats are not contesting this Republican-held seat. Automatic Republican hold.