By Andrew Hong
Clallam County, WA has the nation’s longest track record of voting for the presidential election winner — every one since 1980. This county could tell us the 2024 presidential election outcome before we actually know it. Democrat Joe Biden won 50.2-46.8% in Clallam County and went on to win nationally by just 44,000 votes in 3 states won by less than 1%. So any shift towards Trump in Clallam could spell trouble for Harris’ chances nationally.
The WCA Data Hub is paying close attention to the early votes in Clallam County using WCA’s Early Vote Dashboard to see how the nation’s bellwether county is voting (so far) in the 2024 election.
Early Vote Demographics: White and old
Using the Early Vote Dashboard, we can see not just the demographics of who lives there, but who’s voted. This is valuable because who votes can be (and typically is) very different from who lives there.
So far 2024 Clallam voters are 95.7% white, 59.9% over 65 years-old, and 7.0% under 35yrs. In comparison, Washington State early voters are 89.1% white, 41.4% over 65yrs, and 13.7% under 35yrs. Clallam early voters are therefore slightly whiter and much older than the state and also national average.
Early Turnout by Party: Democrats have an early edge
According to our Early Vote Dashboard, turnout is at 46.3% (26,485 votes) as of Tuesday October 29 — 10.9% higher than statewide. Of those 26,485 voters, 19.7% of them voted in the Democratic Presidential Primary voters, 16.9% voted in the Republican Primary, while ⅔ did not vote in either. A sizable 75.1% of those who voted in the Democratic Presidential Primary have already voted; just 69.4% of Republican Primary voters have voted. That said, past data shows nearly every Primary voter votes in the General, so Republican votes could rise in the home stretch. Alternatively, this could mean less enthusiasm among Nikki Haley GOP Primary voters.
Comparison to 2020: Lower turnout could favor Harris, but COVID complicates
The best gauge of the 2024 election is to compare today’s early votes to the 2020 election early votes at this point. Turnout was 59.1% with 7 days left in 2020, 12.8% higher than today’s 46.3%. Lower turnout historically is concerning for Democrats, however in recent years, Democrats have outperformed in lower-turnout elections (ex: special elections, primaries). This is because Democrats have gained among high-turnout, college-educated voters while low-turnout working class voters have become increasingly Republican. This means lower turnout in Clallam County could favor Harris, but we won’t know until we count those votes.
However the lower 2024 turnout than 2020 could just reflect COVID’s impact on the 2020 election. In 2020, COVID pushed many voters to vote by mail earlier across the US, so voters might just be returning to their pre-COVID voting habits of voting later. However this argument makes less sense in Washington where we have universal mail voting; voting was actually relatively normal for Washingtonians in 2020 because everyone already votes by mail. Voting looks almost identical in 2024 to 2020, so COVID is a smaller factor in Washington if one at all.
2024 Primary: Harris optimism
Finally, the famously–predictive Washington State Primary suggests that 2024 will be marginally bluer than 2020. The Washington State Primary not only predicts local and state general election outcomes but also national political environments very well. Both our math and analysis by Split Ticket suggests the national political environment will be 1-3% more Democratic than 2020, but undoubtedly still very close.
All in all, Clallam County and the Washington State Primary point to a very close election, but one where we’d ever-so-slightly rather be Harris than Trump. In about one week, we’ll see if Washington State keeps its status as an overlooked but accurate bellwether for the presidency.
