By: Andrew Hong, Research Data Analyst, WCAAF
Seattle City Council’s special election this year doesn’t just elect ex-Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda’s replacement, but marks the first time in years that a city council election takes place in an even year.
Historically, even-year elections have had much higher voter turnout than odd-year elections. Higher turnout typically yields more People of Color (POC), younger, and, therefore, more progressive electorates.
Indeed, progressive Alexis Mercedes Rinck beat moderate appointed interim Councilmember Tanya Woo 50-38%. However, Rinck didn’t win because the electorate looked demographically different. The even-year 2024 Primary electorate was demographically very similar to odd-year Primaries.
We looked into the data to see exactly what happened.
Indeed, turnout did increase this year compared to 2024. About 35,000 more ballots were cast in the 2024 Primary than the 2023 Primary. Turnout subsequently increased from 36.4% to 43.7% according to King County Elections
However despite that modest turnout increase, the demographics of the electorate looks about the same across both years. When you tally it up, the 2024 Seattle Primary electorate is just 1.5% more POC, and actually 3.4% less young than 2023. The proportion of voters from each district was also very similar.
So the racial, age, and geographic composition of who voted in 2024 is just a couple percentage points different — and actually older — from the most recent odd-year Primary.
These results suggest that centrist Tanya Woo’s loss isn’t necessarily a result of election timing, but may reflect a view among Seattleites that Woo and the new moderate City Council’s first 6 months in office were a failure. Conversely, Alexis Mercedes Rinck’s success reflects Seattleites’ desire for progressive change rather than the specific year she ran.
While this is the storyline for the Primary, it doesn’t mean the November 2024 General electorate won’t look different from typical odd-year General electorates. In fact, historical data suggests that the difference between even and odd years General Election turnout is more different than it is for Primaries. Primary elections have roughly similar turnout levels year-by-year while even-year General elections have much higher turnout than odd-year General elections. This is especially true in a presidential year.
Conventional wisdom would suggest that this year’s presidential election will significantly increase the diversity and youth of Seattle’s electorate, bolstering progressive Rinck’s (already strong) chances even more. However, there’s never been a presidential-year city council election before, so we don’t know if turnout as high as we’re expecting (80%+ vs odd-year 40-50% turnout) will actually help Rinck. Perhaps presidential-only voters swing moderate in city politics.
With the opportunity to obstruct the 7-2 veto-proof centrist Council majority, progressives should leave no room for uncertainty and invest into these new November voters to ensure they plug into city politics, and vote progressive (Rinck).
Data Sources
- King County Elections data was used for citywide Seattle turnout and district-by-district statistics
- America Votes VAN data was used for race and age statistics.
