By Andrew Hong, WCA Action Fund
Key Takeaways
- The newly-redistricted 14th LD is one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities in the path to a supermajority.
- Latinos have a new opportunity for representation in the 14th.
- While Republicans won in the 2024 Primary, historic data suggests it may be a “red mirage”. Democrats still have a strong chance in the General Election
- East Pasco and East Yakima are key areas to mobilize ahead of November
Introduction
This year, one of the hottest political battleground in Washington legislative politics is east of the Cascades: Yakima and Pasco. The newly redistricted 14th legislative district is the only LD where President Joe Biden won by double-digits in 2020 but Republicans hold all legislative positions. It is a crucial area needed for an eventual Democratic supermajority in Olympia, and offers a fresh opportunity for Latino representation in the Legislature.
For the past 20 years, control over the Washington State Legislature has been decided mostly by western Washington suburbs along the I-5 corridor where the vast majority of swing districts reside. Since 2018, Democrats have solidified their holding on these districts — the 5th, 28th, 30th, 41st, 44th, 45th, 47th — and with them, legislative majorities.
As Washington continues to get bluer, the new battle in Olympia will turn to ⅔ supermajorities needed to reform the state constitution. This is needed to rebalance Washington’s anti-working-class tax system that forces minimum wage workers to pay taxes at the same rate as billionaires. To achieve the necessary supermajority, Democrats need to flip roughly 4-5 LDs, including the 14th.
Political Context & Redistricting
The 14th LD encompasses majority-Latino communities across South Central Washington including East Yakima, Yakima Lower Valley, and East Pasco. Despite the 14th’s large reliably-Democratic Latino population, it’s been represented by Republicans for decades because of gerrymandering. In fact since 2012, 100% of its legislators were White and Republican, despite there being a majority-Latino constituency.
The lack of suitable representation catalyzed community organizers to push for changes during the 2020 redistricting process to undo the Republican gerrymander and secure Latino representation in Central Washington. Unfortunately, Democratic and Republican redistricting commissioners drew a gerrymandered map that continued the disenfranchisement of Latinos in the 14th. Latino voters responded with a Voting Rights Act lawsuit against the gerrymander, and a federal court agreed with the Latino plaintiffs and redrew the 14th LD to restore Latinos’ voting rights.
This new 14th voted for Democrat Joe Biden by double-digits as well as for many other statewide Democratic elected officials in 2020. This election is the first time the new 14th can elect Latino representation in the Legislature.
However, with the recent rightward shift among Latinos nationally and locally, Democratic US Senator Patty Murray actually lost this new district by over 10% in 2022. This could be a small blip in the larger political landscape, or it could be the start of a new racial realignment of Latinos to the Republican Party. So what previously seemed like an easy pickup for Democrats is now an uncertain battleground in 2024.
2024 Primary Results
Indeed, the 2024 Primary Election results show that the 14th cannot be won without concerted efforts. Democratic candidates lost by 20% or more to Republican candidates.
While losing at all is not good, historic data shows this result isn’t the death sentence it appears to be. Democrats tend to perform way better in the General Election in the 14th LD. For example in 2020, Democratic gubernatorial candidates received just 40.8% support in the Primary only to win with 54.9% in the General — this trend held across several races in 2020.
Additionally, the 14th Primary electorate looks very different from the General electorate. The 14th contains many rural, immigrant, lower income earning Latino and Native communities that are not regular Primary voters, but will often turn out in presidential elections. Thus the General has more voters of color, and thereby, Democratic voters than the Primary.
2024 General Election Forecast
We can use the 2020 election to forecast each 2024 Democrats’ vote share in the General based on their Primary results.
First, we take Primary Democratic vote share across all races in 2020 and compare that to the General Democratic vote share. Since redistricting changed the 14th LD boundaries, we can only do this for statewide races, not LD contests.
We find an average of a +11.5% gain for Democrats between the 2020 Primary and General. The range for Democratic gains was +10.2% (Insurance Commissioner) to +14.1% (Governor). Races at the top of the ballot (e.g. Governor) and where Democrats did worse in the Primary (e.g. US Representative) had larger Democratic gains; there were smaller gains in down-ballot races (e.g. State Auditor) and races with strong Democratic Primary showings (e.g. Insurance Commissioner).
Applying these 2020 shifts to 2024, two of the three Democratic candidates are forecasted to win the General despite losing the Primary: Senate candidate Maria Beltran and Representative Pos. 2 candidate Ana Ruiz Kennedy. Democrat Chelsea Dimas (Representative Pos. 1) is projected to win about 48-49%. Both Kennedy and Dimas are within the range of error from 2020, meaning it could go either way.
If Democrats mobilize Latino voters to 2020 levels, historic data shows Democrats not only have a chance, they’re the favorite to win the 14th in November.
Where the Election Will Be Decided
These forecasts assume Democrats mobilize Latino voters like they did in 2020 — something that’s not a given. As we saw in the Primary results, when Democrats don’t mobilize voters of color, Democrats lose.
We delved into the Primary results by precinct to see where precisely the 14th LD races will be decided. Specifically, we identified precincts that Democrats won big in 2020 but had lower turnout in the 2024 Primary — these precincts colored blue are crucial to mobilize to turn out Democratic voters who did not vote in the Primary.
These blue target precincts are mostly in East Pasco, Southeast Yakima City, and the Yakama Reservation. High-turnout Democratic precincts — in purple — are also in Yakima and Pasco. The vast majority of majority-Latino precincts by eligible voters fall in these blue and purple precincts, meaning that it’s vital for Democrats to organize Latino communities to win.
If Democratic organizers can mobilize voters in these key regions, they put Beltran, Dimas, and Kennedy in positions to replicate or even outdo the double-digit Democratic swings we saw in the 2020 General — and flip the 14th blue for the first time in over 12 years.
Sources
- Header image from Dave’s Redistricting App
- Data from WA Secretary of State, US Census Bureau
