By Andrew Hong, WCAAF
President
Donald Trump lost Washington State, as expected, but was elected the next President by the Electoral College. The WCA Action Fund (WCAAF) is deeply disappointed in this result as Donald Trump’s actions have and will harm the 99% of America, particularly working class communities of color. We will be analyzing the presidential results in great detail in the coming weeks and months to understand how our politics shifted and how we build from here to a multiracial social democracy.
Nationally, President Trump had his largest gains in communities of color from South Texas to the Bronx, NY. Voters of color in Washington very likely shifted right, too: majority-Latino counties in Central Washington represent Trump’s largest gains since 2020.
Trump’s gains in communities of color underscores the importance of WCA’s work mobilizing these very communities under a working class agenda, and we will be organizing strategically and tirelessly these next 4 years to win those voters back.
On another note, Washington State lost its quasi-bellwether status this election. Clallam County lost its longest-in-the-nation streak of voting for the presidential winner since 1980 as it votes for Harris who will lose the Electoral College. Additionally the Washington Primary predicted a slightly bluer national environment than 2020, which evidently did not happen.
Turnout
Turnout sits at 76.8% as of late Thursday night and is expected to only grow another 1-5%. This marks a modest decrease from 2020’s 84.1% turnout and will be among the lowest turnout presidential general elections since 2000. Late ballots may inch 2024 turnout closer to 2016 turnout levels.
Statewide Races
Democrats won every single statewide office this year: US Senator, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Public Lands Commissioner, State Auditor, Insurance Commissioner, and Superintendent of Public Instruction. Before 2022, Democrats had not achieved this for decades, underscoring how dominant the Democratic Party has gotten in the state. Senator Maria Cantwell performed the best among Democratic statewide candidates while Dave Upthegrove performed the worst. All of these races were won comfortably and will not go to a recount.
US House
District 3: Lean Democrat
Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez leads Republican Joe Kent in their rematch by a close 51.3-48.3% margin. While late ballots break Republican in this southwestern Washington district, there are unlikely to be enough outstanding ballots for Kent to win. Perez is likely to hold this crucial House seat for a Democratic majority in the House.
District 4: Lean Anti-MAGA GOP
Incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse is fending off a pro-Trump challenger 51.1-47.2%. Newhouse is one of two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump after the January 6, 2021 insurrection. While close, Newhouse has the advantage to fend off pro-Trump challengers for a second time.
District 8: Democrat Hold
Incumbent Democrat Kim Schrier won re-election by her widest margin yet: 53.7-46.1% on Thursday night. This seat has become increasingly out of reach for Republicans who first lost it in 2018.
State Legislature
Democrats are on track to maintain their legislative majorities in both chambers and potentially expand it.
Democrats are set to hold every Senate seat this year and have a thin lead in the Republican-controlled 18th LD. The 18th alongside the 5th, 10th, and 17th districts still have races that could go either way. As it stands today, Democrats hold a 30-19 majority compared to their current 29-20 majority.
In the lower chamber, Democrats are in a similarly strong position. They are winning every seat they currently hold and lead the 26th LD’s second position. With that, Democrats will likely gain 1 seat to get a 59-39 majority.
Among the biggest surprises was the 14th LD, a newly-redistricted majority-Latino district in Central Washington that Joe Biden won by double-digits in 2020. However this year’s Latino Republican shift at the national level bled down to legislative races, costing Latino Democrats their first opportunity to win in an un-gerrymandered district.
Instead, Washington Democrats now see their clearest path to gain the 4 LDs needed for a legislative supermajority through suburban districts in Southwest Washington (LDs 17, 18), the Gig Harbor area (LD 26), and along the I-5 Corridor (LD 10, 12).
Ballot Measures
In a rebuke against Republicans’ last-ditch effort for political power in Washington State, voters decisively shot down 3/4 right-wing ballot measures to undo progressive legislation passed in the last 8 years. I-2109 (repeal capital gains tax to defund schools), I-2117 (deregulate corporate carbon emissions, Cap-and-Invest program), and I-2124 (repeal healthcare program mandate) all failed by wide margins. The fourth initiative I-2066 (deregulate natural gas) is slightly ahead 51-49% — we’re waiting on the last ballots to come in before determining the final outcome.
I-2117’s victory represents a stark shift from past environmental initiatives’ failures, namely I-1631 (carbon taxes) in 2018. We found a broad, statewide increase in support for I-2117 since 2018’s I-1631, particularly in Grays Harbor and Pacific Counties. A key difference between these two initiatives is that I-1631 was a proposal for a new program while I-2117 aimed to repeal an existing environmental program. Voters may be wary of changing the status quo, regardless of whether the status quo is “pro-environment” or not. The above map shows the difference between the pro-environment position between 2018’s I-1631 (Yes) versus 2024’s I-2117 (No).
We also examined the difference between I-2117 and the far more popular I-2066. Both measures aim to deregulate environmental protections, but I-2066 is 27% more popular than I-2117. We find the largest gap in support for I-2117 in the most liberal counties along the Puget Sound: King, Snohomish, and Whatcom Counties. In other words, Democrats were the most likely to support deregulation of natural gas products (I-2066) while also opposing the repeal of the Cap-and-Invest program.
Local Offices
Spokane County Commission will likely maintain its 3-2 Republican majority with incumbent Republican Al French leading in District 5 by 51.2-48.6%. This race is still close, but a likely hold for Republicans.
Yakima County Commission will also maintain its 3-0 Republican majority with Republican incumbent Kyle Curtis handedly defeating Democrat Susan Soto Palmer in District 2. This race also reflects the Latino shift to the right as this district is majority-Latino and voted for Biden.
Pierce County Council will most likely keep its 4-3 Democratic majority, too. The key District 6 seat remains blue with Jani Hitchen defeating Republican Loujanna Rohrer 52.4-47.5%.
In Clark County, Democrats are close to toppling the 4-1 Republican majority in a county that’s reliably voted for Democrats in top-ticket races. Democrat Wil Fuentes leads in District 3 51.8-47.4% and Democrat Matt Little only trails Republican Joe Zimmerman by 1.2% in this solidly-red district. If Little pulls an upset, Democrats can gain a county government.
In Seattle, centrist appointed-incumbent Tanya Woo loses her fourth election in two years to progressive Alexis Mercedes Rinck by a wide margin of 58-42% with more progressive late ballots to count.
